We believe that the best statistics are those that are easy for the normal fan to understand.
We love football. We also love math. And while those two things don't usually sit next to each other on the couch, we realized they should.
Our mission is simple: to transform raw NFL data into clear, statistically-backed probabilities you can actually use. We don't just guess; we simulate. A lot.
Instead of just guessing a final score, this simulator tries to act out a whole game, one offensive possession (a "drive") at a time. This creates a more realistic and nuanced prediction.
The simulation determines the expected number of drives in the game by averaging the drives per game for both selected teams. The teams then take turns on offense for this total number of drives.
For each drive, the simulator calculates the probability of a Touchdown, a Field Goal Attempt, a Turnover, or a Punt. These probabilities are influenced by the adjusted team ranks, defensive modifiers, and key offensive data points.
Not all drives are simple. If a drive results in a Field Goal Attempt or a Turnover, a second dice roll occurs:
This entire process is repeated 10,000 times. The final results are averages from all simulated games, providing a robust statistical prediction. The play-by-play log shows the single simulated game that was closest to the final predicted score.